What are the best businesses to be in a post-AGI world?
✅ Safe Reply
Businesses that own proprietary data or distribution. AI can replicate logic but not relationships or first-party datasets. The moat moves from code to context.
The best post-AGI business is the one that doesn't need AGI to justify its existence. If your thesis requires the tech to arrive, you're speculating, not building.
5.5 is so earnest. "little engine that could" energy
✅ Safe Reply
Earnestness in a model is underrated. The best tools are the ones that do what you ask without trying to be clever about it. Reliable beats flashy every time.
"Little engine that could" energy is exactly what enterprises don't want. They want the model that just does the job without the personality. Earnest is nice. Boring is better.
6 years ago today: Software was the same as a decade earlier, yet demand exploded. Everyone could work 20 hours a week from home. NRR 140%+ everywhere. AI was a sparkle in a few researchers' eyes. Simpler Times.
✅ Safe Reply
Nostalgia for 2020 is wild. The SaaS golden era was a one-off demand shock, not a permanent baseline. The companies surviving now are the ones building for the world as it is, not as it was.
Simpler times? Sure. But most of that 140% NRR was pandemic pull-forward, not product-market fit. The hangover was always coming. AI just made it arrive faster.
Speed of execution in software is increasing exponentially, with equal or greater quality. Agreements with third parties and the physical world will be the limiting factor.
✅ Safe Reply
Software speed is compounding but the real bottleneck now is everything outside the codebase: legal, compliance, partnerships. The 10x dev team still waits on the lawyer.
The bit-movers are lapping the atom-movers. Every tech company is about to discover its growth is limited not by engineering capacity but by how fast humans sign contracts.
Spec-driven development with coding agents. Vibe coding is fast but often produces code that doesn't match what you asked for. Write a detailed spec, then let agents implement.
✅ Safe Reply
Spec-driven development is just engineering discipline with a new label. The best devs already knew that clarity of intent beats speed of keystrokes. The tooling finally caught up with the principle.
The irony of vibe coding is that it requires the most un-vibey thing possible: a rigorous spec. The people who treat AI like a magic 8-ball get magic 8-ball results.
Growth sits right past discomfort, but not all anxiety signals the right direction. Sometimes it's just a bad deal dressed up as an opportunity. Learn to tell the difference.
The crypto discount is real. Launch a token early and everyone labels you a crypto project destined for zero. Delay your token launch as long as possible. Or skip it entirely.
✅ Safe Reply
The token discount is real but so is the token premium when timed well. The question isn't whether to launch one, it's whether your product has enough utility to justify it before the market decides for you.
Most projects would be better companies without a token. The ones that actually need one can explain why in one sentence. If you need a whitepaper to justify it, you don't need it.
70% of founder-led B2B SaaS companies stall between $7M and $12M ARR because the founder's calendar is the growth engine's hard capacity limit.
✅ Safe Reply
The founder-sales trap is self-reinforcing. The more you close, the less time you have to build a repeatable process. Extraction isn't optional above $5M ARR, it's survival.
If your best seller is the founder, you don't have a sales team. You have a founder who happens to sell. That's a job, not a business. Build the machine or stay on the treadmill.
Token launches are slowing down. Projects are taking longer, raising less, focusing on actually shipping first. Users are getting pickier. Crypto is filtering itself.
✅ Safe Reply
The slow-down in token launches is the healthiest signal crypto has had in years. Less noise means the projects that survive the filter actually have to earn attention through utility.
Crypto isn't dying, it's being pruned. The 95% of launches that were pure speculation are finally starving. What's left will be stronger for it. The tourists are gone. Good.
Adobe isn't building better tools anymore. It's building autonomous workers. AI agents that run entire marketing workflows start to finish. The question isn't whether AI replaces your software. It's whether it replaces the person using it.
✅ Safe Reply
The shift from tools to workers is real. The winners won't be the companies building the best AI features, they'll be the ones rethinking the entire workflow around what autonomous agents can actually own end to end.
Adobe building autonomous workers is Adobe admitting its tools were always a means to an end. The end was the output, not the software licence. Every SaaS company that sells clicks is now in the firing line.